• Fiscal figures until two months
back would still win (undeserved, as I see it) praise. Recent developmentS,
however, suggest otherwise, as the federal primary balance for the first half
of 2012 has reached below the level observed in the same period of 2011;
• Superficially, this seems a
collection problem, as revenue growth slowed down. A deeper look, however,
reveals that the actual issue is the pace of expenditure expansion, which can
only be made consistent with the fiscal targets if revenues (including
non-traditional ones, such as dividends and concessions) keep pouring in
generously;
• There are indeed indications
that federal spending accelerated strongly during the second quarter of 2012,
as seasonally adjusted primary expenditures broke new ground, reaching for the
first time levels above 18% of GDP. Whereas the seasonal adjustment itself is
problematic, the truth is that even the non-seasonally adjusted figures
indicate that the observed level of spending in 2Q12 is the highest for any
second quarter since 1999, when federal authorities started the fiscal
adjustment process;
• Adjusting fiscal data for
non-traditional revenues (and expenditures) we estimate that the federal
primary balance stood at about 1.5% of GDP in the 12-month period to June
(official data put it at 2% of GDP);
• As a result, the consolidated
primary balance (encompassing, besides the federal government, states,
municipalities and some government-owned companies) would be at about 2.2% of
GDP, whereas the official figures would put it at 2.7% of GDP;
• Yet, Copom inflation forecasts
depart from the assumption that the primary balance would be around 3.1% of GDP
from 2012 to 2014. Likewise, these forecasts assume that the government would
halt the concession of subsidized credit; nevertheless, figures disclosed by
BCB itself reveal that the Treasury extended additional R$ 29.8 billion to
BNDES in the first half of the year;
• Had I not obtained the data
from BCB’s own website I could almost imagine that this development had escaped
the usually vigilant Copom;
• It seems, thus, that the
Committee has based its forecasts on overly optimistic assumption about both
fiscal and quasi-fiscal policy. Both fiscal and quasi-fiscal
policies seem more expansionary than the assumptions contemplated in BCB
models. Yet, these developments have been willfully ignored, and risk leading
to a significant underestimation of inflationary pressure ahead.
+exporta%C3%A7%C3%A3o+vs+Absor%C3%A7%C3%A3o+(-)+PIB.bmp)
7 comentários:
Alex,
Me tira uma dúvida?
Suponha a seguinte IS simplificada:
y(t) = -b (i(t) - Ep - r) + c
onde i é a taxa de juros nominal, Ep a expectativa de inflação, r a taxa neutra de juros e c é um choque de demanda.
Partindo dessa especificação teórica para uma estimação da curva IS, você utilizaria a taxa de juros em t como variável explicativa do hiato em t?
Se sim, deveria tratar da problema da endogeneidade, pois pela curva de Philips, percebe-se a endogeneidade de i(t):
i(t) = r + E[p(t)] + a[E[p(t)]-p*] + bh(t) + d
Correto?
No caso, trata-se da função de reação e não a Curva de Phillips, mas a sacada está correta: a taxa de juros é uma variável endógena do modelo.
Alex,
Por onde ana o "O"?
André
Sim, perdão Alex, saiu Curva de Philips sem querer (no automático).
Obrigado!
Well done, Mr! Perhaps: "Recent development, however, suggests"?
O tio 'O' na verdade é o Esquiva Falcão.
Ao invés de bater para defender a Veja, agora está lutando para garantir o ouro em Londres.
Aliás, que feio o reporter/editor da Veja querendo saber como grampear deputado hein, O? É essa a revista que você defende?
TA
É. Deveria ser "recent developmentS, however, suggest (…)". Mais tarde corrijo. Valeu.
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