sexta-feira, 10 de agosto de 2012

Anything goes

• Fiscal figures until two months back would still win (undeserved, as I see it) praise. Recent developmentS, however, suggest otherwise, as the federal primary balance for the first half of 2012 has reached below the level observed in the same period of 2011;
• Superficially, this seems a collection problem, as revenue growth slowed down. A deeper look, however, reveals that the actual issue is the pace of expenditure expansion, which can only be made consistent with the fiscal targets if revenues (including non-traditional ones, such as dividends and concessions) keep pouring in generously;
• There are indeed indications that federal spending accelerated strongly during the second quarter of 2012, as seasonally adjusted primary expenditures broke new ground, reaching for the first time levels above 18% of GDP. Whereas the seasonal adjustment itself is problematic, the truth is that even the non-seasonally adjusted figures indicate that the observed level of spending in 2Q12 is the highest for any second quarter since 1999, when federal authorities started the fiscal adjustment process;
• Adjusting fiscal data for non-traditional revenues (and expenditures) we estimate that the federal primary balance stood at about 1.5% of GDP in the 12-month period to June (official data put it at 2% of GDP);
• As a result, the consolidated primary balance (encompassing, besides the federal government, states, municipalities and some government-owned companies) would be at about 2.2% of GDP, whereas the official figures would put it at 2.7% of GDP;
• Yet, Copom inflation forecasts depart from the assumption that the primary balance would be around 3.1% of GDP from 2012 to 2014. Likewise, these forecasts assume that the government would halt the concession of subsidized credit; nevertheless, figures disclosed by BCB itself reveal that the Treasury extended additional R$ 29.8 billion to BNDES in the first half of the year;
• Had I not obtained the data from BCB’s own website I could almost imagine that this development had escaped the usually vigilant Copom;
• It seems, thus, that the Committee has based its forecasts on overly optimistic assumption about both fiscal and quasi-fiscal policy. Both fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies seem more expansionary than the assumptions contemplated in BCB models. Yet, these developments have been willfully ignored, and risk leading to a significant underestimation of inflationary pressure ahead. 


7 comentários:


Me tira uma dúvida?

Suponha a seguinte IS simplificada:

y(t) = -b (i(t) - Ep - r) + c

onde i é a taxa de juros nominal, Ep a expectativa de inflação, r a taxa neutra de juros e c é um choque de demanda.

Partindo dessa especificação teórica para uma estimação da curva IS, você utilizaria a taxa de juros em t como variável explicativa do hiato em t?

Se sim, deveria tratar da problema da endogeneidade, pois pela curva de Philips, percebe-se a endogeneidade de i(t):

i(t) = r + E[p(t)] + a[E[p(t)]-p*] + bh(t) + d


No caso, trata-se da função de reação e não a Curva de Phillips, mas a sacada está correta: a taxa de juros é uma variável endógena do modelo.


Por onde ana o "O"?


Sim, perdão Alex, saiu Curva de Philips sem querer (no automático).


Well done, Mr! Perhaps: "Recent development, however, suggests"?

O tio 'O' na verdade é o Esquiva Falcão.

Ao invés de bater para defender a Veja, agora está lutando para garantir o ouro em Londres.

Aliás, que feio o reporter/editor da Veja querendo saber como grampear deputado hein, O? É essa a revista que você defende?


É. Deveria ser "recent developmentS, however, suggest (…)". Mais tarde corrijo. Valeu.